Scenarios evaluated

Here we evaluate the impact of 7 scenarios, each corresponding to a different contact rate. These scenarios can be understood in terms of:

Scenario Percent orig. R0 Percent increase from current R0 Effective R0
0 21.10% -60.00% 0.87
1 34.20% -39.30% 1.41
2 47.40% -18.50% 1.96
3 60.60% 2.40% 2.50
4 73.70% 23.10% 3.04
5 86.80% 43.80% 3.58
6 100.00% 64.60% 4.13

Increase contact rate on 2020-07-14 by variable amounts


In the figures below:

A dashed line represents healthcare resource capacity limits.

Black dots depict COVID-19 data, with counts from outbreaks in nursing homes removed (for more details see Data).

Scenario 0

Equal to:

  • Effective \(R0\): 0.87
  • % of original R0: 21.1
  • % Increase from current: -60

Scenario 1

Equal to:

  • Effective \(R0\): 1.41
  • % of original R0: 34.2
  • % Increase from current: -39.3

Scenario 2

Equal to:

  • Effective \(R0\): 1.96
  • % of original R0: 47.4
  • % Increase from current: -18.5

Scenario 3

Equal to:

  • Effective \(R0\): 2.5
  • % of original R0: 60.6
  • % Increase from current: 2.4

Scenario 4

Equal to:

  • Effective \(R0\): 3.04
  • % of original R0: 73.7
  • % Increase from current: 23.1

Scenario 5

Equal to:

  • Effective \(R0\): 3.58
  • % of original R0: 86.8
  • % Increase from current: 43.8

Scenario 6

Equal to:

  • Effective \(R0\): 4.13
  • % of original R0: 100
  • % Increase from current: 64.6