USC Predict COVID19Social Distancing Scenarios
Scenarios evaluated
Here we evaluate the impact of 7 scenarios, each corresponding to a different contact rate. These scenarios can be understood in terms of:
- Effective \(R0\): The effective R0 this % decrease corresponds to
- % of original \(R0\): Percent of the original (pre-social-distancing) \(R0\) the effective \(R0\) this scenario represents
- % Increase from current: Percent increase from current (as of 2020-07-14) level of social distancing / contact rate
| Scenario | Percent orig. R0 | Percent increase from current R0 | Effective R0 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 21.10% | -60.00% | 0.87 |
| 1 | 34.20% | -39.30% | 1.41 |
| 2 | 47.40% | -18.50% | 1.96 |
| 3 | 60.60% | 2.40% | 2.50 |
| 4 | 73.70% | 23.10% | 3.04 |
| 5 | 86.80% | 43.80% | 3.58 |
| 6 | 100.00% | 64.60% | 4.13 |
Increase contact rate on 2020-07-14 by variable amounts
In the figures below:
A dashed line represents healthcare resource capacity limits.
Black dots depict COVID-19 data, with counts from outbreaks in nursing homes removed (for more details see Data).
Scenario 0
Equal to:
- Effective \(R0\): 0.87
- % of original R0: 21.1
- % Increase from current: -60
Scenario 1
Equal to:
- Effective \(R0\): 1.41
- % of original R0: 34.2
- % Increase from current: -39.3
Scenario 2
Equal to:
- Effective \(R0\): 1.96
- % of original R0: 47.4
- % Increase from current: -18.5
Scenario 3
Equal to:
- Effective \(R0\): 2.5
- % of original R0: 60.6
- % Increase from current: 2.4
Scenario 4
Equal to:
- Effective \(R0\): 3.04
- % of original R0: 73.7
- % Increase from current: 23.1
Scenario 5
Equal to:
- Effective \(R0\): 3.58
- % of original R0: 86.8
- % Increase from current: 43.8
Scenario 6
Equal to:
- Effective \(R0\): 4.13
- % of original R0: 100
- % Increase from current: 64.6
